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NTV Predictions: Fate of UGC
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: POINT: UGC will rule 2008. COUNTERPOINT: UGC will die in 2008. Your take?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
George Kliavkoff, chief digital officer, NBC Universal (former interim Hulu CEO and leader of other NBC tech projects):
“POINT: UGC is a viable long-term art form that has established itself in the culture and will continue to rock in 2008. COUNTERPOINT: The irrational belief that marketers want to associate their valuable brands with unpredictable and sometimes inappropriate UGC and will thereby create a sizable, long-term sustainable business will die in 2008.”
NTV Predictions: Video Fads
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Name a video trend that won’t live to see 2009 (hint: life-casting is an acceptable answer).
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Max Silvestri, Gabe and Max’s Internet Thing (web video comedian):
“I’d like to say product reviews read by strippers, but in fact I’m pretty sure this is what all videos will be by 2009.”
NTV Predictions: Writers’ Strike
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: How do you expect the writers’ strike to play out?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Richard de Silva, general partner at Highland Capital (investor in Metacafe):
“Settlement after the Oscars without major changes — March 2008.”
NTV Predictions: Online Video Stars
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Which online video star do you think will make it big in 2008?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Henry Jenkins, director of the MIT Comparative Media Studies Program and Peter de Florez Professor of Humanities (media and popular culture academic):
“Thinking of online video in terms of a star system may be the wrong way to think about the ways that it will influence the larger cultural ecology. For one thing, people are turning to online video for things they are not and perhaps cannot see within the mass media. Fan researcher Catherine Tossenberger talks about fan-generated content as ‘unpublishable’ and for her, this is a very good thing. Fans, operating outside of the commercial mainstream, have the freedom to do things which would be prohibited [to] those working at the heart of a media franchise — explore new stories, adopt new aesthetics, offer alternative interpretations of characters, or just be bad in whatever sense of the word you want. And much of the online video content thrives because it is unpublishable in the mainstream but has strong appeal to particular niches and subcultures.
NTV Predictions: Unlikely Bedfellows
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of online video experts was this one: Which enemies will make friends in 2008?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Zadi Diaz, Smashface Productions (co-creator of EPIC-FU):
“MSM and the New Media. Even though we are different animals, we may need each other in order to survive more than we think.”
NTV Predictions: Who Will Fail?
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Which video companies won’t last 2008?
Selections from their responses are below. You’ll notice that everyone seems to think somebody’s going to fail next year, but their chosen sacrifices just happen to be the opposite of the business they have a stake in. Our correspondence with the panelists happened over email, but it would have been interesting to see them point fingers if they’d all been in the same room.
We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
George Kliavkoff, chief digital officer, NBC Universal (former interim Hulu CEO and leader of other NBC tech projects):
“To be successful in the online video space, you need to have either massive scale, access to a variety of differentiated premium content, or both. If you are running an online video company that features non-premium, commodity content and you missed the Internet ‘network effect’ enjoyed by YouTube and a few others, it might be time to cash out.”
NTV Predictions: Video Copyright
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Keeping in mind Viacom v. YouTube and potential related legislation, do you expect U.S. copyright policies to change in 2008 and if so, how?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Steve Woolf, Smashface Productions (co-creator of EPIC-FU):
“I don’t think copyright policy will change in 2008. If it does, it
will be terrible for content creators and viewers alike because it
will show that policy makers have not taken the time to understand the
web as a distribution and communications medium.”
NTV Predictions: Video Advertising
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Which online video ad format will become dominant in 2008?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
Kevin Nalty, “self-proclaimed viral video genius” (a.k.a. Nalts from YouTube):
“Google’s InVideo ad is clearly the model. It’s less intrusive, it’s targetable, and it works for marketers. Google didn’t invent overlay ads and they won’t be the only entities that provide it. But in 2008 we’ll see prerolls relegated to just the most valuable content, and surrounding banners becoming commoditized.”
NTV Predictions: Mobile Video
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Will mobile video still suck in 2008?
Selections from their responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
George Ruiz, head of new media at International Creative Management (online video talent agent):
“Not all mobile video is terrible. Streaming content and ‘download to phone’ video has been hampered by the slow rollout and adoption of 3G cellular networks and this results in mostly unwatchable pixelation and slow frame rates for video, but ‘download to computer and sync’ solutions can result in a great user experience.
“I carry clips of all my clients’ work on my iPhone and the playback is gorgeous. For now, if you want to watch video on your phone or mobile device it’s best to download it from iTunes or directly from the source and use freeware to format it to fit your device’s screen. The latter method is pretty geeky, but the mobile video-watching audience is, for the time-being, mostly first-adopter types who are quite tech savvy.
“Finally, the rumored 3G version iPhone will probably arrive in 2008 and all mobile video problems will be solved.”
NTV Predictions: Video in the Living Room
Among the questions we’ve asked our panel of experts was this one: Will online video make it into the living room in 2008?
Their selected responses are below. We’d love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists’ predictions in the comments. For more information on the NewTeeVee 2008 outsourced predictions, see this post.
John Cioffi, Hitachi America professor of engineering at Stanford (a.k.a. DSL soothsayer):
“Yes.”
Richard de Silva, general partner at Highland Capital (investor in Metacafe):
“Not yet — the boxes and technologies which will bridge the gap are still difficult to use and the navigation paradigm hasn’t been worked out for browsing online videos from your couch.”
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